Record expenditure in the transfer window over the past two seasons has been fuelled by the Premier League’s commercial and broadcasting might.
However, bookmakers are predicting a decidedly quiet summer in 2024, with a handful of teams having already been hit by tighter Profit and Sustainability (PSR) sanctions this campaign.
- Bookmakers predict spending to drop to lowest levels since 2014/15 (6/4)
- Clubs spent £2.36bn last summer – now 8/11 to spend under £1.5bn a year later
- Arsenal predicted to spend the most of any club at 2/1
Premier League Transfer Spending Odds
- Lower summer window 2024 transfer spend than summer 2023 – 1/8
- Lower transfer spend in 24/25 than 23/24 – 1/5
- Lowest summer transfer spend since 14/15 season – 6/4
- Over £1.5bn spent in summer 2024 – EVS
- Under £1.5bn spent in summer 2024 – 8/11
Highest Spending Club in Summer 2024 Odds
Team |
Odds to Be Highest Spenders |
Implied Probability |
| Arsenal | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 4/1 | 20% |
| Manchester City | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Chelsea | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Liverpool | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Tottenham | 9/1 | 10% |
| Newcastle | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Aston Villa | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| West Ham | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Nottingham Forest | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Bournemouth | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Fulham | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Leicester | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Wolves | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Crystal Palace | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Everton | 50/1 | 2% |
| Brighton | 66/1 | 1.5% |
| Brentford | 100/1 | 1% |
| Ipswich | 100/1 | 1% |
Spending to Drop to Lowest Levels Since 2014/15, Say Bookmakers
After a record 2021/22, and the second-highest expenditure the following year, January 2024’s notably low levels are a sign of things to come.
Head of PR Liam Solomon said in response to the odds: “With three teams already feeling the wrath of the Premier League’s tighter cost controls, more points deductions and sanctions are to be expected.
“Clubs in the top-flight have spent at least £1bn every season since 2015/16, but a notable proportion of teams will be forced to spend within their means this summer.
“At 8/11, bookmakers are predicting summer spending levels to drop below £1.5bn once again, having previously gone above that for two seasons running.”
Arsenal in Best Shape For Another Busy Window
Solomon continued by saying: “Arsenal are expected to offload a slew of names in the summer, with several homegrown players in the mix that will boost their PSR status – this should allow for a healthy summer of investment.
“Leicester start with a points deduction upon their return, while Everton, Chelsea, Newcastle, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa will have to tread carefully to ensure they comply with PSR.”
