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Bookmakers Predict Lowest Levels of Premier League Spending Since 2015/16 Amid PSR Crackdown

Charlie Rhodes

Record expenditure in the transfer window over the past two seasons has been fuelled by the Premier League’s commercial and broadcasting might.

However, bookmakers are predicting a decidedly quiet summer in 2024, with a handful of teams having already been hit by tighter Profit and Sustainability (PSR) sanctions this campaign.

  • Bookmakers predict spending to drop to lowest levels since 2014/15 (6/4)
  • Clubs spent £2.36bn last summer – now 8/11 to spend under £1.5bn a year later
  • Arsenal predicted to spend the most of any club at 2/1

Premier League Transfer Spending Odds

  • Lower summer window 2024 transfer spend than summer 2023 – 1/8 
  • Lower transfer spend in 24/25 than 23/24 – 1/5
  • Lowest summer transfer spend since 14/15 season – 6/4
  • Over £1.5bn spent in summer 2024 – EVS
  • Under £1.5bn spent in summer 2024 – 8/11

Highest Spending Club in Summer 2024 Odds


Odds to Be Highest Spenders

Implied Probability

Arsenal 2/1 33.3%
Manchester United 4/1 20%
Manchester City 6/1 14.3%
Chelsea 7/1 12.5%
Liverpool 8/1 11.1%
Tottenham 9/1 10%
Newcastle 12/1 7.7%
Aston Villa 16/1 5.9%
West Ham 20/1 4.8%
Nottingham Forest 25/1 3.8%
Bournemouth 33/1 2.9%
Fulham 33/1 2.9%
Leicester 33/1 2.9%
Wolves 33/1 2.9%
Crystal Palace 40/1 2.4%
Everton 50/1 2%
Brighton 66/1 1.5%
Brentford 100/1 1%
Ipswich 100/1 1%

Spending to Drop to Lowest Levels Since 2014/15, Say Bookmakers

After a record 2021/22, and the second-highest expenditure the following year, January 2024’s notably low levels are a sign of things to come.

Head of PR Liam Solomon said in response to the odds: “With three teams already feeling the wrath of the Premier League’s tighter cost controls, more points deductions and sanctions are to be expected.

“Clubs in the top-flight have spent at least £1bn every season since 2015/16, but a notable proportion of teams will be forced to spend within their means this summer.

“At 8/11, bookmakers are predicting summer spending levels to drop below £1.5bn once again, having previously gone above that for two seasons running.”

Arsenal in Best Shape For Another Busy Window

Solomon continued by saying: “Arsenal are expected to offload a slew of names in the summer, with several homegrown players in the mix that will boost their PSR status – this should allow for a healthy summer of investment.

“Leicester start with a points deduction upon their return, while Everton, Chelsea, Newcastle, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa will have to tread carefully to ensure they comply with PSR.”

Charlie Rhodes
Charlie Rhodes

Charlie is an established journalist with a portfolio of thousands of articles, stretching across gambling industry news, sports betting and long-form educational guides. A sports journalist by trade, his deep understanding of the gambling industry has helped to form content on established news sites such as 90min, safebettingsites and FootyAccumulators.