Oppenheimer is expected to sweep the major categories at this year’s Academy Awards – our latest Oscars betting odds reveal which films have the best chance of spoiling the party.
Christopher Nolan’s harrowing wartime epic, Oppenheimer, has already collected awards in abundance in the lead up to this year’s Oscars.
With 13 nominations, it falls just shy of equalling the record shared by La La Land, Titanic and All About Eve. However, the record number of actual wins (11) is well within reach.
Elsewhere, the year’s highest-grossing picture, Barbie, and Alexander Payne’s melancholic nostalgia trip The Holdovers have earned their fair share of nominations, with the latter expected to pick up several awards, as per our latest odds.
See full analysis of each of the main categories, along with the most up-to-date Oscars betting odds as instantcasinos provides the inside track ahead of March 10th.
Oscars Best Picture Odds
- Oppenheimer 1/25
- Poor Things 25/1
- The Holdovers 28/1
- Anatomy of a Fall 40/1
- The Zone of Interest 40/1
- Barbie 50/1
- American Fiction 66/1
- Killers of the Flower Moon 80/1
- Maestro 100/1
- Past Lives 125/1
The holy grail of the film industry – the Academy award for Best Picture – looks to be a foregone conclusion this year.
Oppenheimer is the shortest odds favourite in recent memory according to price-setters, and given its rapturous reception amongst the Hollywood press, there should be no surprises in this category.
Having picked up seven awards at the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs), as well as Best Movie Cast at the Screen Actors Guild Awards – typically a strong indicator for the Oscars – it is no wonder Oppenheimer is 1/25 to scoop Best Picture.
A love-letter to an era of cinema gone-by captured the hearts of many, and The Holdovers can count itself unlucky to be grouped alongside Oppenheimer this year.
So too Yorgos Lanthimos’ typically self-aware oddity that is Poor Things, which is second-favourite, albeit at 25/1.
Oscars Best Actor Odds
- Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer 1/7
- Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers 5/1
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro 16/1
- Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction 66/1
- Colman Domingo – Rustin 80/1
Again, there appears to be little hope for the rest of the nominees as Oppenheimer’s titular character looks to have earned Cillian Murphy his first Academy Award.
His performance as J. Robert Oppenhimer – the fragile and weary ‘Father of the Atomic Bomb’ – manages to capture the weight of nuclear repercussions in harrowing detail.
Murphy’s physical transformation to match Oppenhiemer’s slight and slender build resulted in an eerie likeness, and at 1/7 in the latest odds, it should prove to be the role of a lifetime for the Irishman.
Paul Giamatti is perhaps the only other nominee who has a chance of upsetting the applecart.
His portrayal of a curmudgeonly teacher forced to care for a stranded pupil over the holidays puts an 18-year wait for a second nomination to an end, with many film fanatics eager to see him win.
Although it appears unlikely, the latest Oscars odds give Giamatti a fighting chance.
Oscars Best Actress Odds
- Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon 4/5
- Emma Stone – Poor Things 11/10
- Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall 28/1
- Annette Benning – NYAD 33/1
- Carey Mulligan – Maestro 40/1
Previous Oscar winner Emma Stone has been lauded for her role as Bella Baxter in Poor Things, and has already picked up honours at the Critics Choice Awards and BAFTAs.
The Best Actress category is one of the few awards on the night that could swing either way, but our odds favour Lily Gladstone at 4/5 for her portrayal of Mollie Burkhart in Martin Scorcese’s Killers of the Flower Moon.
📸 Lily Gladstone posing with her SAG Award pic.twitter.com/Wtah5Q3fmU
— Lily Gladstone Updates (@LilyGUpdates) February 25, 2024
In a cast brimming with Oscars heritage such as Robert De Niro and Leonardo Di Caprio, Gladstone shines as the main victim of the oppressive Osage murders, chronicling the manipulation of Native Americans for their land in 1920’s Oklahoma.
Although Emma Stone picked up important accolades at the Critics Choice and BAFTAs, Gladstone has actually won more in awards season, including the all important Screen Actors Guild award for Best Actress.
Oscars Best Supporting Actor Odds
- Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer 1/20
- Ryan Gosling – Barbie 16/1
- Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things 20/1
- Robert De Niro – Killers of Flower Moon 25/1
- Sterling K Brown – American Fiction 40/1
Robert Downey Jr is a shoo-in for Best Supporting Actor after masterfully playing Louis Strauss in Oppenheimer, who unexpectedly turns from ally-to-villain.
Keen cinephiles will be accustomed to Downey Jr’s charismatic and radiant roles, so this atypical casting has earned him wide-spread plaudits.
Ryan Gosling as ‘Ken’ is the next-best as per the latest odds, although at 16/1 the Barbie star is likely to be pipped to the Oscar.
Oscars Best Supporting Actress Odds
- DaVine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers 1/20
- Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer 20/1
- Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple 22/1
- America Ferera – Barbie 25/1
- Jodie Foster – NYAD 33/1
One of the few categories that is expected to swing the opposite way to Oppenheimer is the Best Supporting Actress award.
After collecting the Screen Actors Guild for the same category, odds have been slashed on DaVine Joy Randolph to pip Emily Blunt to the award.
Her role in The Holdovers as a lonely school cafeteria manager, broken apart by personal family tragedies in the Vietnam War, have seen her move comfortably atop the latest market.
Oscars Best Director Odds
- Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer 1/25
- Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things 16/1
- Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon 25/1
- Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall 28/1
- Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest 40/1
It is almost inconceivable to think Christopher Nolan has never won an Oscar given his blockbuster-laden portfolio.
His films have collected almost a dozen Oscars down the years, but 2024 finally looks set to be his year for Best Director, with Oppenheimer his magnum opus.
Having already collected the BAFTA, Directors Guild and Golden Globe, this category appears a foregone conclusion.
Oscars Best Original Screenplay Odds
- Anatomy of a Fall 4/7
- The Holdovers 7/4
- Past Lives 10/1
- Maestro 40/1
- May December 40/1
In a surprise twist for some, it is Anatomy of a Fall that heads into the Oscars as favourite for Best Original Screenplay.
Despite The Holdovers rivalling strongest for Best Picture, the writer-director dynamic of the former has likely seen it move up in the Academy’s estimations.
The French legal drama trumped The Holdovers at the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes, which has seen the odds shift considerably in its favour.
Oscars Best Adapted Screenplay Odds
- American Fiction 8/11
- Oppenheimer 2/1
- Barbie 6/1
- Poor Things 12/1
- The Zone of Interest 40/1
Oppenheimer was widely expected to clinch the Adapted Screenplay BAFTA, with Nolan and his writers expertly transforming the ‘American Prometheus’ book onto the big screen.
However, comedy-drama American Fiction was named the recipient of the award in a surprise to many critics, with director Cord Jefferson adapting the 2001 novel ‘Erasure.’
As a result, it has moved to odds-on for the Oscar according to our latest odds.
Oscars Best Original Song Odds
- Billie Eilish & Finneas – ‘What I was made for’ (Barbie) 1/6
- Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt – ‘I’m just Ken’ (Barbie) 5/1
- Diane Warren – ‘The Fire inside’ (Flamin Hot) 22/1
- Scott George – ‘Wahzhazhe’ (Killers of the Flower Moon) 25/1
- Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson – ‘It Never went away’ (American Symphony) 28/1
The award for Best Original Song looks set to come courtesy of Barbie, with both of the frontrunners featuring tracks from the live-action doll fantasy.
Billie Eilish and brother Finneas are expected to earn their second Oscar in this category, having won in 2021 for their theme for James Bond’s ‘No Time to Die.’
Mark Ronson’s hugely popular comical take on ‘I’m Just Ken’ will apparently be performed by Ryan Gosling on the night, but looks set to miss out on the Oscar at 5/1.
