With the majority of countries releasing their entries, the Eurovision odds for 2024 have experienced a shake-up. Insiders expect Croatia to rival long-time favourites Ukraine, while the UK and Cyprus slip down after the release of their respective songs.
Ahead of Eurovision 2024 in May, the latest betting odds have failed to split Ukraine and brand-new frontrunners Croatia.
The latter’s “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” tune from Baby Lasagna has captured the hearts of Eurovision fans, while 2022 winners Ukraine have an emotionally charged entry that is expected to have the jury’s backing.
This comprehensive Eurovision betting guide courtesy of instantcasionos provides a closer look at the current favourites, along with all the insider information as to what fans can expect from nations further down the market.
2024 Eurovision Betting Odds
- Croatia 7/2
- Ukraine 7/2
- Iceland 7/1
- Italy 7/1
- Belgium 11/1
- Sweden 12/1
- France 16/1
- Lithuania 18/1
- Norway 20/1
- Austria 20/1
- Georgia 22/1
- United Kingdom 22/1
- Israel 25/1
- Armenia 33/1
- Cyprus 33/1
- Greece 33/1
- Ireland 33/1
- Australia 40/1
- Estonia 40/1
- Netherlands 40/1
- Switzerland 40/1
- Azerbaijan 50/1
- Finland 50/1
- Slovenia 50/1
- Spain 66/1
- Denmark 80/1
- Poland 80/1
- Germany 100/1
- Luxembourg 125/1
- Serbia 125/1
- Latvia 150/1
- Portugal 150/1
- San Marino 150/1
- Albania 200/1
- Czechia 200/1
- Malta 200/1
- Moldova 200/1
Which Country Will Win Eurovision 2024?
Taking the odds above, the table below reflects the implied probability of each Eurovision nation.
|
Country
|
Odds
|
Implied Probability
|
|
Croatia
|
7/2
|
22.2%
|
|
Ukraine
|
7/2
|
22.2%
|
|
Iceland
|
7/1
|
12.5%
|
|
Italy
|
7/1
|
12.5%
|
|
Belgium
|
11/1
|
8.3%
|
|
Sweden
|
16/1
|
5.9%
|
|
France
|
16/1
|
5.9%
|
|
Lithuania
|
18/1
|
5.3%
|
|
Norway
|
20/1
|
4.8%
|
|
Austria
|
20/1
|
4.8%
|
|
Georgia
|
22/1
|
4.3%
|
|
United Kingdom
|
22/1
|
4.3%
|
|
Israel
|
25/1
|
3.8%
|
|
Armenia
|
33/1
|
3.4%
|
|
Cyprus
|
33/1
|
3.4%
|
|
Greece
|
33/1
|
3.4%
|
|
Ireland
|
33/1
|
3.4%
|
|
Australia
|
40/1
|
2.4%
|
|
Estonia
|
40/1
|
2.4%
|
|
Netherlands
|
40/1
|
2.4%
|
|
Switzerland
|
40/1
|
2.4%
|
|
Azerbaijan
|
50/1
|
2%
|
|
Finland
|
50/1
|
2%
|
|
Slovenia
|
50/1
|
2%
|
|
Spain
|
66/1
|
1.5%
|
|
Denmark
|
80/1
|
1.2%
|
|
Poland
|
80/1
|
1.2%
|
|
Germany
|
100/1
|
1%
|
|
Luxembourg
|
125/1
|
0.8%
|
|
Serbia
|
125/1
|
0.8%
|
|
Latvia
|
150/1
|
0.7%
|
|
Portugal
|
150/1
|
0.7%
|
|
San Marino
|
150/1
|
0.7%
|
|
Albania
|
200/1
|
0.5%
|
|
Czech Republic
|
200/1
|
0.5%
|
|
Malta
|
200/1
|
0.5%
|
|
Moldova
|
200/1
|
0.5%
|
Latest Eurovision Odds and Preview: Croatia and Ukraine Lead the Markets
Just two months remain until singers from around Europe, and invitees Australia, battle it out in Malmo to be crowned Eurovision winners.
While the host nation Sweden are inevitably high-up in the latest market having been voted champions a record seven times, odds-makers have several countries ahead of them.
Italy, who will have their first female entry in a decade, and Iceland, whose own national final was shrouded in controversy, are both thought to be strong frontrunners amongst the Eurovision community.
However, the prevailing storyline as of late concerns the favouritism towards Croatia, who have moved level with long-time favourites Ukraine, as per our latest Eurovision odds.
As joint-favourites at 7/2, Croatia and Ukraine will both compete in the Contest’s first semi-final on May 7th. Following the release of their respective songs, the consensus is that both will lock horns in the Grand Final four days later.
Below we put the strongest nations under the microscope to see what each of their acts are bringing to the table.
Belgium – ‘Before the Party’s Over’ by Mustii
Although a handful of national qualifiers are yet to conclude, insiders expect Belgium to be in with a chance of finishing near the top spots.
Mustii, who is an established artist, actor and composer in his native Belgium, was the first act to be confirmed for Eurovision 2024.
“Before the Party’s Over” is written to reflect Mustii’s own captivating experience at being named Belgium’s entry for Eurovision, and the man himself says he wanted the tune to be as “sincere as possible.”
A flamboyant performer on stage, Mustii’s experience as a renowned entertainer back home should translate to the rest of Europe, and he is handed an 11/1 chance of winning the whole thing.
Belgium 2023 Position: 7th
Italy – ‘The Boredom’ by Angelina Mango
Angelina Mango’s victory in Italy’s final sees her become the nation’s first female entrant in 10 years.
The tune flips the concept of ‘boredom’ on its head and challenges the listener to see it as a peaceful time to dedicate to themselves.
The daughter of legendary Italian singer-songwriter Mango, Angelina’s concept-driven track is thought to be one of the strongest entries so far this year.
Italy 2023 Position: 4th
Iceland – ‘Scared of Heights’ by Hera Björk
Despite complications with SMS public voting in Iceland’s national final, Here Björk was confirmed to have indeed been selected as their entry.
Her song, ‘Scared of Heights’ is a powerful dance anthem that she hopes will clinch Iceland a spot high up the final voting.
2024 also marks the second time Björk will represent her country at Eurovision, having finished in 19th place in 2010.
Iceland 2023 Position: Failed to qualify
Ukraine – “Teresa & Maria” by alyona alyona & Jerry Heil
Three-time winners Ukraine, who were crowned champions as recently as 2022, are handed joint-favourite status in the early Eurovision odds.
They are the only nation to qualify from every semi-final appearance, and their entry this year has been met with glowing reviews.
Titled ‘Teresa & Maria’ the song carries a poignant message of unity amongst women, particularly in war-torn Ukraine which enters its second year of conflict with neighbouring Russia.
The Eurovision Song Contest has become notably more sympathetic to current affairs in recent years, and the nation’s struggles with Russia, coupled with a strong message in their song has seen them named long-term favourites since 2023’s edition concluded.
Ukraine 2023 Position: 6th
Croatia – “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” by Baby Lasagna
Croatia’s winning entrant may sound like something you’d stick on for the kids to keep them entertained, but Baby Lasagna has quickly become a surprise new favourite.
The release of his song “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” has kicked the Eurovision media into overdrive, leading to Croatia being named as the newest favourite alongside Ukraine.
Croatia have never won Eurovision, failing to qualify for the final in nine of their 14 appearances as a nation. They broke a four-year streak of not qualifying for the final last year, but not many expected them to be the early frontrunners for 2024.
Although his performance comes across with energy and humour, the lyrics address the anxiety many young Croatians face when leaving home in search of better opportunities.
A nation infamous for its high levels of emigration, the song chronicles the unknown of leaving rural Croatia for a different life.
Croatia 2023 Position: 13th
Eurovision Song Contest All-Time Wins
- 7 times: Ireland, Sweden
- 5 times: France, Luxembourg, Netherlands, United Kingdom
- 4 times: Israel
- 3 times: Denmark, Italy, Norway, Ukraine
- Twice: Austria, Germany, Spain, Switzerland
- Once: Azerbaijan, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Latvia, Monaco, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, Yugoslavia
