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Ben Horlock

Understanding blackjack odds doesn’t have to be difficult. Casinos offer plenty of variations on the game, with variable odds and house edges – and, our experts are on hand to help you learn what the best odds look like.

We also want to help polish your overall game with a few thoughtful tips – so, read on if you think your game could use a helping hand or your blackjack knowledge could use some fine-tuning.

What is Blackjack?

Blackjack is a card game you can play at online casinos. The goal is to get as close as possible to 21 without going over that number. Your aim is to have a higher number than the dealer. In addition, your odds of winning blackjack can vary based on the cards you are dealt, but we will get into what the odds look like for each set of numbers shortly.

What are Blackjack Odds, and How Do They Work?

The odds of winning blackjack over the long term depend on several factors, such as player strategy, game rules, and the number of decks in play. With over 42% of people preferring to play blackjack online, it isn’t a surprise that it is one of the games with the top casino odds.

Statistically, you can expect to win around 50% of the time in the long term, but this also depends on luck, the house edge, and other factors that influence the game. Also, ties are pretty rare, and when they do occur, they will result in bets being returned without additional winnings.

While we can discuss the percentage chances of ties and wins, you must remember that the cards are always well-shuffled, so the outcome heavily depends on random chance. That said, skill is involved in how you play the cards that are dealt to you.

blackjack odds table

Blackjack House Edge and Bust Probability

The house edge in blackjack, typically around 0.5% to 1%, represents the casino’s statistical advantage over players in the long term, resulting from factors like players acting before the dealer and rules favoring the house in certain scenarios.

The dealer’s probability of busting varies depending on their upcard, with lower upcards like 2 or 3 resulting in higher probabilities of busting when hitting and higher upcards like 7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace resulting in lower probabilities of busting. Have a look at our blackjack odds table to get a better understanding of these outcome chances.

Dealer’s Card Probability when standing on 17 Probability when hitting on 17
Ace 17% 20%
2 35% 26%
3 37% 38%
4 40% 40%
5 42% 42%
6 42% 44%
7 26% 26%
8 24% 24%
9 23% 23%
10 23% 23%

blackjack odds dealers hand chart

Blackjack Player Odds and Bust Probability

Reducing the house edge when playing online blackjack can significantly improve your chances of winning. But how can you begin to do that? One effective method is to learn basic blackjack strategy, which involves making the best decisions based on your hand and the dealer’s upcard.

By following this strategy, you can minimize the casino’s advantage to around 0.5% or lower, significantly increasing your odds of success. Moreover, understanding probability in blackjack is crucial for making informed decisions based on the likelihood of favorable outcomes, such as when to hit, stand, double down, or split pairs. You can use a blackjack odds chart to help you better understand how you should play certain hands.

Techniques like card counting can further tilt the blackjack winning odds in your favor, but keep in mind that online blackjack instant payout casinos are not fond of this method, and it is also exceedingly difficult to master. These techniques can help limit the house edge, but at the end of the day, you need some luck to secure consistent wins.

Here’s our blackjack odds card that depicts the probability of your hand-busting.

Player’s hand value Probability of busting
11 or lower 0%
12 31%
13 39%
14 56%
15 58%
16 62%
17 69%
18 77%
19 89%
20 92%
21 100%

Use Blackjack Odds with Tricky Hands

You will not always be dealt hands that are easy to play. When that is the case, you must try to play the blackjack odds with the perfect strategy. This is easier said than done, of course, but a few indicators can help you make the right decisions even when it seems exceedingly tricky. Let’s have a look at a few examples of tricky spots you might find yourself in and how basic strategy can help.

  • Hard 16: When you are dealt a hard 16 (a hand without an ace), hitting against the dealer’s seven or higher upcard is generally recommended.
  • Soft 17: When holding a soft 17 (a hand with an ace valued as 11), it’s typically best to hit against the dealer’s 9, 10, or ace, as there’s a chance to improve the hand without risking busting.
  • Pair of 8s: Splitting a pair of 8s is usually recommended, except against a dealer’s ace.
  • Hard 12: With a hard 12, hitting is generally advised against the dealer’s 2 or 3 upcard, as there’s a risk of the dealer improving their hand. However, standing might be preferable against a dealer’s 4, 5, or 6, where the likelihood of the dealer busting is higher. This is one of the more tricky scenarios, as it could go both ways.
  • Hard 15: Against a dealer’s ten or ace, hitting is usually recommended with a hard 15.

Blackjack Odds Payout

The blackjack probability of getting a natural blackjack is about 4.83%. Different real money casinos apps may offer varying payouts for a blackjack, typically ranging from 3:2, 6:5, or 1:1, which significantly impacts the house edge. The payout ratio you want to play for is always 3:2, as shown in our table below, as it gives you the best house edge percentage. The instant payout casinos often offer 3:2 odds on blackjack, especially on live dealer tables.

blackjack odds payout

Payout for Blackjack Blackjack House Edge
3:2 0.5%
6:5 1.9%
1:1 2.8%

Comparing Blackjack Odds with Other Table Games

When comparing blackjack to other popular table games like roulette and baccarat, it’s important to consider the odds and house edge associated with each game. In fact, blackjack odds of winning are the best among casino table games, with a house edge of around 0.5% to 1% when played with optimal strategy. Obviously, we have already seen that the house edge can vary, but this, on average, is what you can get it down to.

This low house edge makes blackjack appealing to players who want better chances of winning. On the flipside, roulette tends to have a higher house edge, especially in American roulette, where the presence of both 0 and 00 increases the edge to around 5.26%. European roulette offers slightly better odds with a single 0, reducing the house edge to approximately 2.7%. Either way, you can see that even with European roulette, the house edge is high, higher than most blackjack tables.

Baccarat is another table game with favorable odds and a house edge close to blackjack. Depending on the bet you place, the house edge in baccarat ranges from around 1.06% for the banker bet to 1.24% for the player bet. The various table games you can play all have different house edges, but your odds of winning blackjack are the best. Moreover, baccarat also has compelling house edges in comparison to spinning the wheel at roulette casinos.

Choosing the Right Blackjack Game

Sometimes to get the best blackjack winning odds you need to choose the right type of game to play. These games can vary but after enough time, you will find your rhythm and learn which of these blackjack casino games have the best parameters for you.

  • American Blackjack: American blackjack typically features a higher house edge compared to other variants due to specific rule variations. One common difference is that the dealer receives two cards from the start, one face-up and one face-down, which can impact your decisions.
  • European Blackjack: European blackjack typically offers more favorable blackjack odds for players compared to other variants due to certain rule advantages. European blackjack often follows the “no peek” rule, meaning the dealer only receives one card initially and does not check for blackjack if their upcard is an ace or a ten-value card until after you act. This rule reduces the house edge compared to other variations where the dealer may peek for blackjack upfront.
  • Live Dealer Blackjack: There are numerous live dealer blackjack games that provide a more realistic feel by featuring real-life dealers. They do have a great feel to them but bear in mind that the rules and house edge may vary from live version to live version.
  • Single-Deck Blackjack: Single-deck games often offer some of the best blackjack odds because there are fewer cards, which means you have a lower house edge to contend with.
  • Multi-Hand Blackjack: In multi-hand blackjack, you have the option to play multiple hands at the same time. This can be exciting but also tricky to stay on top of all the moving parts.
blackjack odds games

Improve Your Odds at Blackjack: Top Tips & Strategies

Getting good blackjack odds is one thing, but at the end of the day, this game allows you to control your destiny and avoid a house win. As such, let’s look at a few tips and strategies you can use to try to influence your outcomes positively.

✅ Choose the Right Game: Choose a version with better house odds for blackjack. For example, European or single-deck blackjack.

✅ Learn Basic Strategy: Learn the charts that show you how to play your hands in response to the dealer’s hand. Having a grasp of blackjack strategies is the best way to get better results.

✅ Stand on 17+: Always stand on a hard 17 or higher to avoid the risk of busting.

✅ Double Down on 11: Double down when you have a total of 11, as this blackjack hand typically has the best chance of getting to 21.

✅ Split Aces and 8s: Split a pair of aces or 8s to improve your chances of building two strong hands. Aces should always be split, while 8s should be split unless surrender is available.

✅ Hit Soft 17: If you have a soft 17 (an ace and a six), it’s generally best to hit, as there’s no risk of busting and a chance to improve your hand without much downside.

✅ Avoid Insurance Bets: Avoid taking insurance bets, as they typically have a high house edge and will not help you much in the long run.

✅ Manage Your Bankroll: Set a budget for your blackjack sessions and stick to it, avoiding chasing losses or betting more than you can afford to lose.

✅ Take Advantage of Promotions: Look for crypto casinos offering generous bonuses or rewards for playing blackjack. This can give your funds a much-needed boost.

✅ Practice: Try to practice as much as you can and use free demo at gambling sites to get better at the game without using your real cash.

Blackjack Probability: Questions and Answers

What are the odds of winning in blackjack?

What are the best odds at a blackjack table?

Is blackjack a skill or luck?

How do you maximize odds in blackjack?

Is it hard to win at blackjack in a casino?



Ben Horlock

Ben is an experienced news and features writer who specializes in providing expert guides on all aspects of online and in-person gambling. Ben has over ten years experience writing for web-based audiences and has strong expertise in casinos, online cryptocurrency gambling platforms as well as slots and table games. Ben has been published across a number of english international news outlets, including InstantCasinos and BitcoinCasino. As well, Ben has worked in social media for four years in the sports gambling industry.